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Just How To identify value within your bets? That’s the big question. My friend, Alex Napier who operates the top Bet Soccer website, has asked me to write this article to describe how bookmakers’ percentages are calculated and just how they supply a guide to assessment of value within the odds on offer. He has asked me to look at soccer betting, where, because of the few possible outcomes (three choices – win, lose or draw) the odds offered are short in almost any event.
A perfectly “balanced book” where the odds offered exactly reflect the opportunity of each team winning or the draw would produce an overall total of 100.00%. Theoretically the bookmaker will profit by the total percentage on the match less 100.00%. In the above table bookmaker 1 should profit by 11.89% of turnover on the match and bookmaker 2 by 11.23%. At first sight there does not seem to be much between them but once we compare the theoretical profit of each the margin on the bookmaker 1 odds (i.e. 111.89 – 100.00 = 11.89%) is 5.84% higher than the 11.23% margin on the bookmaker 2 odds! Where the odds on offer produce a theoretical profit for the bookmaker the book is said to be “over round”. The bookmaker 1 book is over round by 11.89% and also the bookmaker 2 book by 11.23%.
Where the odds on offer total less than 100.00%, which never actually occurs with the odds offered by anyone bookmaker as they would in theory be certain to lose on the event, they’re “under round” . The losing percentage would be 100.00% less the total odds percentage. Not surprisingly this will not happen. Individual bookmakers do not offer odds on the possible outcomes that would give them a loss. What does happen, although very infrequently, is that the odds offered by a selection of bookmakers can vary to the extent that you can locate a combination where those for the 3 possible outcomes are under round. This means that you can bet on all three possibilities – win, lose and draw – and provided you allocate your total stake within the correct proportion you shall get a profit of the percentage by that you can bet at under round odds.
Identifying value
From the aforementioned data it’s fairly obvious that the 4 – 1 offered by bookmaker 1 in respect of the home team winning is the greatest price, there’s no difference in the odds offered for the draw but bookmaker 2 offers the best odds for the away win. The question then arises, which is the greatest value? Obviously the 20.00% provided by bookmaker 1 on the home win is the lowest percentage so may very well be the very best value, but this really is too simplistic. There has to be a yardstick to measure the odds against. That is your own assessment or your advised assessment of the opportunity of each outcome. If you give each possibility your own percentage rating you can compare this with the bookmaker odds percentage to establish where the value lies. How you evaluate the prospects of each outcome is just not because of this article. It deserves More Tips detailed treatment than may be given here where we are dealing with bookmakers’ margins and value bets.
Assuming that the true reflection of the chances on the above mentioned match were home win 20% (bookmaker 1 had that about right and bookmaker 2 was under priced), a 20% chance of a draw (although these were the bookmakers offering the best odds on the draw they were still under priced) and also a 60% chance of an away win (where bookmaker 2 quotes a price that gives a lower percentage chance so offers value) consideration should receive to an away win bet with bookmaker 2.
Stake allocation
There may be occasions when it is essential to allocate your stake between different outcomes. This could be the situation where a selection of bookmakers odds produce an under round opportunity or where there’s a strong reason to include 2 of the three possible outcomes so it’s essential to allocate the stake between them. Within the illustration below the odds have been exaggerated. It is quite seldom in reality that an under round opportunity arises though the illustration is an excellent one to show just how to use percentages.
It really is generally obvious which bookmaker is or bookmakers are offering the very best odds. All you will need do is compare them. Identifying value is another matter. For this you’ll need to calculate the odds percentages to compare with your own, or your advised, perception or assessment of the prospects of each outcome. By comparing the available percentages with your assessment you may identify where the value lies and make your selections accordingly – and maybe now and again identify a no lose position where a selection of the odds offered by the various bookmakers produce an under round position! Disciplined utilization of percentages should form a major part of your strategy in identifying value within the odds offered and contributing to your betting profits.
