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Smart sports betting, and football betting especially, is depending on the skills of the teams involved as opposed to random chance. This difference profoundly affects the appropriate betting strategies or systems. Understanding this difference is what makes a highly effective sports bettor.
Many of the betting systems and strategies available today are based upon general probabilities of a win or loss and also are modified versions of systems developed for games of chance. On the contrary, sports betting – and also poker – just isn’t according to random chance and probabilities, but on the skill of the contestants. This means the underlying premise of sport betting is significantly different than betting on games of chance.
Although most good online casino gambling agency strategies designed for games of chance are mathematically unsound, in practice if one has roughly a 50% chance of winning, these systems can at least appear to offer an effective means of betting. In the long haul, the failure of such systems is more or less inevitable because it is based upon the Gambler’s Fallacy. Gambler’s Fallacy will be the mistaken impression that specific results are “due” based on previous outcomes in a series of independent trials of a random process. By way of example, the if one is tossing coins, and heads come up repeatedly, the gambler may conclude that this implies tails is “due” to come up next; whereas, actually, the chances that the next coin toss will cause tails is exactly the exact same irrespective of the range of times heads has come up already.
In skill-based wagering, the bettor with the most understanding of the contestants involved has a definite advantage over the bettor which is hoping that the desired outcome “is due” according to probabilities. There is absolutely no sound mathematical probability that any specific football-team “is due” anything. Just think of Arsenal that won 14 consecutive games in 2002, or Derby County F.C. that lost 37 consecutive games in 2007-08. The determining factor of these runs was the skill of the teams, not random chance.
That is not to state that random chance is just not involved, of course it is. Any team might make mistakes or have accidents, leading to upsets and surprise outcomes. Nevertheless the smart sports bettor knows that the skill level of the team in question will be much more likely to influence the outcome than chance and luck. This is what makes a successful sports bettor over time. Anybody can get lucky on occasion, but if one learns to make intelligent bets in line with the skills of the teams involved, one is a lot more prone to win significant quantities of money over the long term.
