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Smart sports betting, and football betting especially, is according to the skills of the teams involved in contrast to random chance. This difference profoundly affects the appropriate betting strategies or systems. Understanding this difference is what makes an effective sports bettor.
Many of the betting systems and strategies available today are based upon general probabilities of a win or loss and also are modified versions of systems developed for games of chance. On the contrary, sports betting – as well as poker – isn’t based on random chance and probabilities, but on the skill of the contestants. This means that the underlying premise of sport betting is significantly different than betting on games of chance.
Although most trusted online gambling agent strategies designed for games of chance are mathematically unsound, in practice if one has roughly a 50% chance of winning, these systems can at least appear to offer a highly effective means of betting. Within the long run, the failure of such systems might be more or less inevitable since it is based upon the Gambler’s Fallacy. Gambler’s Fallacy is the mistaken impression that specific results are “due” according to previous outcomes in a series of independent trials of a random process. For instance, the if one is tossing coins, and heads come up repeatedly, the gambler may conclude that this implies tails is “due” to come up next; whereas, in fact, the chances that the next coin toss will cause tails is precisely the same regardless of the range of times heads has come up already.
In skill-based wagering, the bettor with the most familiarity with the contestants involved has a definite advantage over the bettor that is hoping that the desired outcome “is due” based upon probabilities. There’s no sound mathematical probability that any specific football team “is due” anything. Just think of Arsenal that won 14 consecutive games in 2002, or Derby County F.C. that lost 37 consecutive games in 2007-08. The major point of such runs was the skill of the teams, not random chance.
Which is not to say that random chance isn’t involved, of course it’s. Any team could make mistakes or have accidents, leading to upsets and surprise outcomes. Nonetheless the smart sports bettor knows that the skill level of the team in question is much more prone to influence the outcome than chance and luck. This is what makes a successful sports bettor in the long run. Anybody can get lucky from time to time, but if one learns to make intelligent bets according to the skills of the teams involved, one is much more very likely to win significant quantities of money over the long haul.
