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How Exactly To identify value within your bets? That is the big question. My friend, Alex Napier who operates the best Bet Soccer website, has asked me to write this article to explain how bookmakers’ percentages are calculated and how they provide a guide to assessment of value in the odds on offer. He has asked me to look at online soccer gambling betting, where, because of the few possible outcomes (three choices – win, lose or draw) the odds offered are short in almost any event.
A perfectly “balanced book” where the odds offered exactly reflect the chance of each team winning or the draw would produce an overall of 100.00%. Theoretically the bookmaker will profit through the total percentage on the match less 100.00%. In the above table bookmaker 1 should profit by 11.89% of turnover on the match and bookmaker 2 by 11.23%. At first sight there doesn’t appear to be much between them but whenever we compare the theoretical profit of each the margin on the bookmaker 1 odds (i.e. 111.89 – 100.00 = 11.89%) is 5.84% higher than the 11.23% margin on the bookmaker 2 odds! Where the odds on offer produce a theoretical profit for the bookmaker the book is said to be “over round”. The bookmaker 1 book is over round by 11.89% as well as the bookmaker 2 book by 11.23%.
Where the odds on offer total less than 100.00%, which never actually occurs with the odds offered by any individual bookmaker as they would in theory be certain to lose on the event, they may be “under round” . The losing percentage will be 100.00% less the total odds percentage. Not surprisingly this does not happen. Individual bookmakers don’t offer odds on the possible outcomes that will give them a loss. What does happen, although very infrequently, is that the odds provided by a selection of bookmakers could differ to the extent you can find a combination where those for the 3 possible outcomes are under round. This means you can bet on all three possibilities – win, lose and draw – and provided you allocate your total stake within the correct proportion you could make a profit of the percentage by which you can bet at under round odds.
Identifying value
From the above mentioned data it’s fairly obvious that the 4 – 1 offered by bookmaker 1 in respect of the home team winning is the greatest price, there’s absolutely no difference in the odds offered for the draw but bookmaker 2 offers the top odds for the away win. The question then arises, which will be the best value? Obviously the 20.00% offered by bookmaker 1 on the home win is the lowest percentage so may be the most effective value, but this really is too simplistic. There must be a yardstick to measure the odds against. That’s your own assessment or your advised assessment of the opportunity of each outcome. If you give each possibility your own percentage rating you may compare this with the bookmaker odds percentage to establish where the value lies. The way you study the probability of each outcome just isn’t due to this article. It deserves more complete treatment than can be given here where we have been dealing with bookmakers’ margins and value bets.
Assuming that the true reflection of the chances on the above match were home win 20% (bookmaker 1 had that about right and bookmaker 2 was under priced), a 20% chance of a draw (although these were the bookmakers offering the best odds on the draw they were still under priced) and a 60% chance of an away win (where bookmaker 2 quotes a price that gives a lower percentage chance so offers value) consideration should get to an away win bet with bookmaker 2.
Stake allocation
There can be occasions when it is essential to allocate your stake between different outcomes. This could be the case where a selection of bookmakers odds produce an under round opportunity or where there is a strong reason to include 2 of the three possible outcomes so it’s necessary to allocate the stake between them. Within the illustration below the odds happen to be exaggerated. It’s very seldom in reality that an under round opportunity arises although the illustration is the best one to show just how to use percentages.
It really is generally obvious which bookmaker is or bookmakers are offering the most effective odds. All you need do is compare them. Identifying value is another matter. Due to this you’ll need to calculate the odds percentages to compare with your own, or your advised, perception or assessment of the chances of each outcome. By comparing the available percentages with your assessment you can identify where the value lies and make your selections accordingly – and possibly now and again identify a no lose position where a selection of the odds provided by the many bookmakers produce an under round position! Disciplined usage of percentages should form a major part of your strategy in identifying value within the odds offered and leading to your betting profits.
