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How to identify value in your bets? That’s the big question. My friend, Alex Napier who operates the best Bet Soccer website, has asked me to write this article to describe how bookmakers’ percentages are calculated and the way they supply a guide to assessment of value in the odds on offer. He has asked me to look-at soccer betting, where, as a result of the few possible outcomes (three choices – win, lose or draw) the odds offered are short in almost any event.
A perfectly “balanced book” where the odds offered exactly reflect the chance of each team winning or even the draw would produce an overall of 100.00%. Theoretically the bookmaker will profit through the total percentage on the match less 100.00%. Within the above table bookmaker 1 should profit by 11.89% of turnover on the match and bookmaker 2 by 11.23%. At first sight there does not appear to be much between them but whenever we compare the theoretical profit of each the margin on the bookmaker 1 odds (i.e. 111.89 – 100.00 = 11.89%) is 5.84% higher than the 11.23% margin on the bookmaker 2 odds! Where the odds on offer produce a theoretical profit for the bookmaker the book is said to be “over round”. The bookmaker 1 book is over round by 11.89% as well as the bookmaker 2 book by 11.23%.
Where the odds on offer total less than 100.00%, which never actually occurs with the odds provided by anyone bookmaker as they would in theory be sure to lose on the event, they’re “under round” . The losing percentage would be 100.00% less the total odds percentage. Not surprisingly this does not happen. Individual bookmakers don’t offer odds on the possible outcomes that could give them a loss. What does happen, although very infrequently, is that the odds offered by a selection of bookmakers can vary greatly to the extent you could locate a combination where those for the 3 possible outcomes are under round. Therefore you may bet on all three possibilities – win, lose and draw – and provided you allocate your total stake within the correct proportion you will make a profit of the percentage by that you can bet at under round odds.
Identifying value
From the above data it’s fairly obvious that the 4 – 1 offered by bookmaker 1 in respect of the home team winning will be the best price, there is absolutely no difference within the odds offered for the draw but bookmaker 2 offers the top odds for the away win. The question then arises, which is the best value? Obviously the 20.00% offered by bookmaker 1 on the home win will be the lowest percentage so might be the very best value, but this is too simplistic. There must be a yardstick to measure the odds against. That is your own assessment or your advised assessment of the chance of each outcome. If you give each possibility your own percentage rating you can compare this with the bookmaker odds percentage to establish where the value lies. The way you evaluate the chances of each outcome just isn’t for this article. It deserves more thorough treatment than can be given here where we have been going through bookmakers’ margins and value bets.
Assuming that the true reflection of the chances on the aforementioned match were home win 20% (bookmaker 1 had that about right and bookmaker 2 was under priced), a 20% chance of a draw (although these were the bookmakers offering the best odds on the draw they were still under priced) and a 60% chance of an away win (where bookmaker 2 quotes a price that gives a lower percentage chance so offers value) consideration should receive to an away win bet with bookmaker 2.
Stake allocation
There can be occasions when it’s necessary to allocate your stake between different outcomes. This could be the case where a selection of bookmakers odds produce an under round opportunity or where there is a strong reason to include 2 of the 3 possible outcomes so it’s essential to allocate the stake between them. Within the illustration below the odds are already exaggerated. It is extremely seldom in reality that an under round opportunity arises although the illustration is an excellent one to show just how to use percentages.
It’s generally obvious which bookmaker is or bookmakers are offering the most effective odds. All you need do is compare them. Identifying value is yet another matter. For learn online gambling site this you’ll need to calculate the odds percentages to compare with your own, or your advised, perception or assessment of the chances of each outcome. By comparing the available percentages with your assessment you can identify where the value lies and make your selections accordingly – as well as perhaps now and again identify a no lose position where a selection of the odds provided by the different bookmakers produce an under round position! Disciplined usage of percentages should form an important part of your strategy in identifying value in the odds offered and contributing to your betting profits.
