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While the bookies constantly improve their soccer prediction methods and try to avoid paying out, we can still find holes within their predictions. The question is how. There isn’t any one million-dollar answer. Nevertheless, there are two ways which will permit you to beat the bookies. A proven way is to analyze non-measurable match information. A different way is to improve on statistical prediction models employed by bookmakers.
The very first method requires you to analyze data such as match type or priority, which is just not employed in statistical models. Among the most prominent factors that could influence the outcome of a soccer match are:
Match type which can be an international/national league, a cup, or perhaps a friendly game. Especially profitable for you are the cup finals, where the media selects favorites as well as the better informed punter can benefit from betting on the highly priced underdog teams.
Match priority. Each team has to define its priority for the forthcoming matches, since team resources are restricted. European national cups are good examples for the very best teams of low priority games.
Match time is important, since soccer predictions are usually inaccurate at the beginning and at the end of the season.
Players’ injuries, illnesses and transfers especially within the cases of key players. Bookmakers’ odds tend to be calculated before these facts will be available.
European Leagues – predictable and unpredictable. The Italian, Norwegian, French and Spanish leagues are thought about predictable. The unpredictable are the English and German leagues, especially at the beginning and also the end of the season.
Additional factors are pitch conditions, team managers, match attendance, weather conditions and, simply, pure chance.
To analyze all that information for every match could be a complicated and quality online casino football time-consuming task. The alternative is to use advanced statistical prediction methods, which constitute a marked improvement on bookies’ prediction models.
Why can their models be further improved? For starters, when analyzing bookies’ predictions carefully, it really is easy to notice that their models are determined by average statistics. Low odds usually correspond to teams with high table positions and vice versa. It’s clear that the accuracy of their models suffers when team skills change. Thus, by taking into account team skill dynamics, you may improve your profit by placing a bet on highly priced underdogs.
Second, the bookmakers’ models do not distinguish between the attacking and defensive strengths of soccer teams and don’t remember that soccer teams choose different strategies when playing at home or away. As soon as you discover ways to distinguish between attacking and defensive strengths, you can easily forecast the total number of goals and beat the bookies at under/over bets.
Statistical models which were developed over the past number of years explain historical match results with regards to changing skills and strategy. Bookmakers do not use such advanced models. Properly designed and optimized time-dependent models can predict just as much as 70% of matches, outperforming the bookies’ predictions whose accuracy is much lower.
