As the bookies constantly improve their soccer prediction methods and attempt to avoid paying out, we can still find holes within their predictions. The question is how. There’s no one million-dollar answer. Nonetheless, you will find two ways which will make it possible for you to beat the bookies. A proven way is to analyze non-measurable match information. Another way is to improve on statistical prediction models used by bookmakers.

The first method requires you to analyze data for example match type or priority, which just isn’t utilized in statistical models. Among-the most prominent factors that may influence the outcome of a great online soccer gambling agency match are:

Match type which can be an international/national league, a cup, or a friendly game. Especially profitable for you are the cup finals, where the media selects favorites and the better informed punter can make the most of betting on the highly priced underdog teams.

Match priority. Each team must define its priority for the forthcoming matches, since team resources are limited. European national cups are good examples for the top teams of low priority games.

Match time is essential, since soccer predictions tend to be inaccurate at the beginning and at the end of the season.

Players’ injuries, illnesses and transfers especially in the cases of key players. Bookmakers’ odds are usually calculated before these facts is available.

European Leagues – predictable and unpredictable. The Italian, Norwegian, French and Spanish leagues are thought about predictable. The unpredictable will be the English and German leagues, especially at the beginning as well as the end of the season.

Other factors are pitch conditions, team managers, match attendance, weather conditions and, as always, pure chance.

To analyze all that information for every match will be a complicated and time-consuming task. The alternative is to use advanced statistical prediction methods, which constitute a change on bookies’ prediction models.

Why can their models be further improved? First of all, when analyzing bookies’ predictions carefully, it’s easy to notice that their models are based on average statistics. Low odds usually correspond to teams with good table positions and vice versa. It is clear that the precision of their models suffers when team skills change. Thus, by taking into account team skill dynamics, you can improve your profit by placing a bet on highly priced underdogs.

Second, the bookmakers’ models don’t distinguish between the attacking and defensive strengths of soccer teams and do not remember that soccer teams choose different strategies when playing at home or away. Once you learn to distinguish between attacking and defensive strengths, you can readily forecast the total number of goals and beat the bookies at under/over bets.

Statistical models which were developed over the past number of years explain historical match results with regards to changing skills and strategy. Bookmakers do not use such advanced models. Properly designed and optimized time-dependent models can predict around 70% of matches, outperforming the bookies’ predictions whose accuracy is significantly lower.