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While the bookies constantly improve their soccer prediction methods and try and avoid paying out, we can still find holes in their predictions. The question is how. There’s absolutely no one million-dollar answer. Nonetheless, there are two ways that may permit you to beat the bookies. A proven way is to analyze non-measurable match information. A different way is to improve on statistical prediction models utilized by bookmakers.
The very first method requires you to analyze data for example match type or priority, which is not employed in statistical models. Among-the most prominent factors that might influence the outcome of a soccer match are:
Match type which is often an international/national league, a cup, or possibly a friendly game. Especially profitable for you are the cup finals, where the media selects favorites and also the better informed punter can profit from betting on the highly priced underdog teams.
Match priority. Each team must define its priority for learn the facts here now forthcoming matches, since team resources are restricted. European national cups are good examples for the very best teams of low priority games.
Match time is very important, since soccer predictions are often inaccurate at the beginning and by the end of the season.
Players’ injuries, illnesses and transfers especially within the cases of key players. Bookmakers’ odds are often calculated before these facts will be available.
European Leagues – predictable and unpredictable. The Italian, Norwegian, French and Spanish leagues are thought about predictable. The unpredictable will be the English and German leagues, especially at the beginning as well as the end of the season.
Other factors are pitch conditions, team managers, match attendance, weather conditions and, of course, pure chance.
To analyze all that information for every match will be a complicated and time-consuming task. The alternative is to use advanced statistical prediction methods, which constitute an improvement on bookies’ prediction models.
Why can their models be further improved? To start with, when analyzing bookies’ predictions carefully, it’s easy to notice that their models are determined by average statistics. Low odds usually correspond to teams with good table positions and vice versa. It is clear that the precision of their models suffers when team skills change. Thus, by taking into consideration team skill dynamics, you can boost your profit by placing a bet on highly priced underdogs.
Second, the bookmakers’ models do not distinguish between the attacking and defensive strengths of soccer teams and do not remember that soccer teams choose different strategies when playing at home or away. As soon as you discover ways to distinguish between attacking and defensive strengths, you can easily forecast the total number of goals and beat the bookies at under/over bets.
Statistical models which were developed over the past few years explain historical match results with regard to changing skills and strategy. Bookmakers do not use such advanced models. Properly designed and optimized time-dependent models can predict around 70% of matches, outperforming the bookies’ predictions whose accuracy is a lot lower.
