- This topic is empty.
- Wpisy
Smart sports betting, and football betting above all, is according to the skills of the teams involved instead of random chance. This difference profoundly affects the appropriate betting strategies or systems. Understanding this difference is exactly what makes a highly effective sports bettor.
Many of the betting systems and strategies available today are based upon general probabilities of a win or loss and also are modified versions of systems developed for games of chance. On the contrary, sports betting – as well as poker – is not determined by random chance and probabilities, but on the skill of the contestants. This means the underlying premise of sport betting is significantly different than betting on games of chance.
Although most gambling strategies designed for games of chance are mathematically unsound, relevant site in practice if one has roughly a 50% chance of winning, these systems can at least appear to offer an effective means of betting. In the long run, the failure of such systems is more or less inevitable because it is based upon the Gambler’s Fallacy. Gambler’s Fallacy will be the mistaken impression that particular results are “due” determined by previous outcomes in a series of independent trials of a random process. For example, the if one is tossing coins, and heads come up repeatedly, the gambler may conclude that this implies tails is “due” to come up next; whereas, in reality, the chances that the next coin toss will result in tails is precisely the same irrespective of the range of times heads has come up already.
In skill-based wagering, the bettor with the most comprehension of the contestants involved has a definite advantage over the bettor which is hoping that the desired outcome “is due” based upon probabilities. There’s absolutely no sound mathematical probability that any specific football team “is due” anything. Just think of Arsenal that won 14 consecutive games in 2002, or Derby County F.C. that lost 37 consecutive games in 2007-08. The determining factor for these runs was the skill of the teams, not random chance.
That is not to claim that random chance is just not involved, of-course it is. Any team could make mistakes or have accidents, leading to upsets and surprise outcomes. Even so the smart sports bettor knows that the level of skill of the team in question is a lot more prone to influence the outcome than chance and luck. This really is what makes a successful sports bettor over time. Anybody can get lucky from time to time, but if one learns to make intelligent bets based on the skills of the teams involved, one is significantly more likely to win significant amounts of money over the long run.
