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The point spread’s sole purpose is to even the betting in order that the total amount bet on the underdog is equal to the total amount bet on the favorite. The book makes its cash on the vigorish or juice. As such, should the amount bet on the underdog is the same as the amount bet on the underdog, the book is guaranteed a 10% profit on half the bets made, no matter what team covers.
The very best linesmakers are those who have a feel for precisely what the betting public believes. The betting line they set reflects the betting public’s perception of the strength of the 2 teams. It doesn’t necessarily reflect the true relative strengths of the two teams. And also the sportsbook betting public’s perception is often wrong.
As soon as you understand that concept, the rest will begin to fall into place. You will have an advantage over most bettors.
Be objective. Listen to you head not your heart. Do not bet against the Cowboys simply because you want to see them lose. And, do not bet on a team simply because you like the team. And do not bet on your favorite team if you’re an avid fan. It’s extremely hard to be objective. Fans usually be overly optimistic about their favorite team or overly pessimistic if things are not going well.
Be consistent. Bet the same amount on each game. Some players bet $200 on games they think are locks and $100 on ones they’re not so sure of. It’s those not so sure of bets that rack up the losses. If you’re uncertain about a game, don’t bet it.
Should you bet on the home team? Generally no. Conversely, in the event you can be objective, you’ve got an edge. You probably know more about your house team than those in other parts of the country since the local media gives extensive coverage to the home team, coverage which is not shared with the rest of the country.
Look for Trends. If you spot a trend, factor that into your decision. Some teams have other teams’ number. Within the last 4 years the 49ers have covered against the Rams 7 of 8 times and the one time they did not, Young was hurt and they had to play Druckmiller, a rookie. In the last 5 years, Green Bay has lost 4 out the 5 games played in Detroit.
Trends are not guarantees. The pattern might not hold and also you lose your bet. Nevertheless, remember the point is to improve your probability of winning. Based on past performance, if you bet on the 49ers to cover against the Rams, you are more more likely to win your bet than to lose.
Place your bets late in the week. By waiting before the end of the week, you certainly will know about any injuries to key players which may affect the way you bet. Often times, players are injured or aggravate an injury in practice. Or what seemed like a minor injury on Tuesday may turn out to be one that may keep the player out of the game. Additionally, weather conditions might affect your bet. Inclement weather often keeps the scoring down.
Limit the Range of Games You Bet. More isn’t better. The optimum number seems to be 3 to 6 games. Anymore as well as the winning percentages often decline since the law of averages is necessary. (The more games you play the more likely you are to have 50% winners and 50% losers. And that’s a losing season, because of the juice.) Additionally, it’s simpler to concentrate on a limited number of games.
Losing Streaks Happen. Regardless of what, you may count on a losing streak. It happens to handicappers, professional gamblers, casual bettors, and also books. Be prepared to ride it out. For anybody who is using Pro Predictor or possibly a handicapping service, you need to stick with it through the season in order to come out a winner. Leaving at the very first sign of a losing streak will guarantee you lose for the season. Suppose you drop out only to have the handicapper go 5 for 5 the next week. Those are 5 wins you are going to not have and also will affect your overall winning percentage.
Never Bet Against a Streak. This is a key to increasing your winning and decreasing your losses. Consider this a betting mantra. Say it over and over until it really is firmly embedded within your mind. Never bet against a streak. And, for anybody who is going to bet on streaks, bet the streak shall continue. And it will not matter whether the streak is a winning streak or a losing streak. Ironically, logic will tell you that the odds of a streak continuing double with each additional week and you should bet against it. But there is a hidden trap.
Look at the following scenario: In week 10, you notice that Green Bay has covered for 4 weeks in a row. Should you bet that the streak will end? Simply, per week the odds against the streak continuing double.
Betting Against the Streak: You bet $100 against Green Bay covering in week 11. Sure enough, they fail to cover. You are $100 ahead. But what happens should they do cover as well as the streak continues. You are $110 in the hole. What do you do? Do you bet another $100 against the streak in week 12 since the odds against the streak continuing are even greater? In the event that you do, as well as the streak ends, you win $100 and now are only $10 loser and that is the end of that. However, in the event the streak continues, you’re now $220 in the hole. What do you need to do now? Do you bite the bullet and take your losses or do you fall into the trap of chasing your loses? Do you continue and try to get back several of your losses? Do you double up in an try to cover your loses? Don’t do it. Doubling up is never a good idea. It’s another trap that can cause you to have huge losses and it is not worth the gamble.
Betting with the Streak: You bet $100 that Green Bay will cover again in week 11. If they fail to cover, you have lost $110 and learn online gambling site that’s that, much like a regular straight bet. But what happens if they do cover and the streak continues. You’re $100 to the good and if you continue to bet on the streak, the most you can lose is $10. If you bet another $100 with the streak in week 12 as well as the streak ends, your net losses are $10. Yet, if the streak continues, you are guaranteed to come out at least $90 ahead and with each addition week the streak continues, you add another $100 to your winnings.
Because of this, if you bet against a streak, the most you may win is $100 but you the total amount you can lose is limited only through the length of the streak. If you bet with the streak, the most you can lose is $110, but the amount you may win is limited only through the length of the streak.
