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As the bookies constantly improve their soccer prediction methods and try and avoid paying out, we can still find holes in their predictions. The question is how. There is absolutely no one million-dollar answer. Even so, there are two ways which will make it possible for you to beat the bookies. One way is to analyze non-measurable match information. Yet another way is to improve on statistical prediction models utilized by bookmakers.
The first method requires you to analyze data for example match type or priority, which just isn’t utilized in statistical models. Among-the most prominent factors which may influence the outcome of a soccer match are:
Match type that may be an international/national league, a cup, or a friendly game. Especially profitable for you are the cup finals, where the media selects favorites as well as the better informed punter can profit from betting on the highly priced underdog teams.
Match priority. Each team has to define its priority for the forthcoming matches, since team resources are restricted. European national cups are good examples for the very best teams of low priority games.
Match time is essential, since soccer predictions are usually inaccurate at the beginning and at the end of the season.
Players’ injuries, illnesses and transfers especially within the cases of key players. Bookmakers’ odds are usually calculated before this information shall be available.
European Leagues – predictable and unpredictable. The Italian, Norwegian, French and Spanish leagues will be considered predictable. The unpredictable will be the English and German leagues, especially at the beginning and the end of the season.
Other reasons are pitch conditions, team managers, match attendance, weather conditions and, of course, pure chance.
To analyze all that information for every match would be a complicated and time-consuming task. The alternative is to use advanced statistical prediction methods, which constitute a change on bookies’ prediction models.
Why can their models be further improved? To start with, when analyzing bookies’ predictions carefully, it really is easy to notice that their models are according to average statistics. Low odds usually correspond to teams with high table positions and vice versa. It really is clear that the precision of their models suffers when team skills change. Thus, by taking into consideration team skill dynamics, you may enhance your profit by placing a bet on highly priced underdogs.
Second, the bookmakers’ models do not distinguish between the attacking and defensive strengths of soccer teams and don’t remember that soccer teams choose different strategies when playing at home or away. As soon as you learn more how to distinguish between attacking and defensive strengths, you can simply forecast the total range of goals and beat the bookies at under/over bets.
Statistical models which were developed over the past couple of years explain historical match results when it comes to changing skills and strategy. Bookmakers don’t use such advanced models. Properly designed and optimized time-dependent models can predict just as much as 70% of matches, outperforming the bookies’ predictions whose accuracy is much lower.
