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What If the betting line or spread was established by four sports advisory companies without collusion or previous understanding of each others numbers!
Lets face some facts concerning this number or point spread that usually comes from one Sports Advisory Group. This number is sold or distributed to the sports betting outlets online and the legal Sports Books in Nevada. These outlets put their little tweak on the line by 1/2 point or 1 point or even an extra $5 on the cash odds. In contrast, everybody will post their number which will be the same or within a point of each other. This is the equivalent of price fixing and collusion in any other industry.
How come the Sports Betting Industry has the exact same price or spread on their own betting board? WHY – because nobody wishes to rock the boat!
What if this process of establishing a betting line was not really a monopoly but was provided by at least four sports consulting groups which were independent of each other. Each group would then post their calculated number for the worldwide sports betting outlets to buy and use for their operation.
This new mode of operation would unlock the monopoly that exists in the event the line is established. Now what happens? Would some books dare to post numbers which are distinctive from others by 4 or 5 points either way. I doubt it since nobody wishes to rock that boat. Is this collusion by the sports books so also they can keep their share of the market and not create a price or point spread war.
The process of constructing the point spread number is probably done through a software program with all of the statistics as well as other information to get a base number. Then the actual number is refined to include public perception as to where the general public will place their cash. It’s no secret that Sports Books speculate or predict at what number the general public will be evenly divided.
There are numerous of times when the line isn’t even close to the final score. They do come close about 65% of the time. Conversely, when the spread is minus 7 and also the favorite wins by 21 points or the underdog wins outright, their number is way off.
If that minus 7 point favorite is listed at minus 11 points at another outlet would there be a Revolution among Sports Book operators. Would this difference of opinion cause a lot of anxiety with casino management. I am sure they will question each others actions after doing the same thing together all check these guys out years.
For a true and balanced market to emerge within any industry, there should be some options and competition among the players involved. A Betting Exchange is quite close to a far more balanced betting market since the levels of competition are against other bettors. The spread is the same however the money odds tend to be better with more options.
Should the Sports Books in Nevada and online books elect to re-arrange their Sports Book operations to include some alternatives to the spread, they’re going to increase their handle and be more competitive. I would install some type of Spread Betting which is big in Europe. Allow more options with alternative lines and charge just a little more vigorish. Some online books have alternative run lines on baseball. They post the run line at minus 1.5 runs on the favorite and underdog within the same game.
The Sports Betting outlets need to become more innovative to maintain a market share. We know they probably will not “rock that boat” unless one or more sports betting venues develops a rogue or maverick mentality. This would be a big gamble which could payoff and increase share of the market. Conversely, it really is ironical that sports books do not want to be in the gambling business. They just want to collect their commission and avoid too much risk. They can be more worried about the heavy hitters than the small average recreational bettors who lose more often.
Promoting or seeing changes in any financial markets is similar to getting people to stop smoking or obese people to lose weight. Change is difficult for a great deal of people and businesses. As they say “talk is cheap”. Conversely, I feel technology is becoming more prevalent in Sport Betting industry. Hopefully, it’s going to create a far more vibrant market with better options and more competition in the sports betting community.
