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The search for profit does not end when you have found the very best football betting tips. There is still a whole lot to be done to make certain consistent profit. Money management is simply as necessary as using the correct football betting tips.
However in the rush to get their money on, most of the people overlook this important element of football betting. So what is money management? Let’s look-at it in basic terms: You are betting on two football matches. You know that you will produce a profit 80% of click the up coming document time as well as the other has a 50-50 chance of winning. You would want to put extra money on the match having an 80% chance of profit wouldn’t you? Which is money management.
It is basically managing your hard earned money to manage with risk. So logic says that on the risky bets, you should risk less cash as well as on the bets that are stronger, you need to stake extra money. This may seem like common sense to you, but it’s often overlooked.
Now the next question is: How do we calculate how much to put on a team? The most frequent method is to use the exact same amount (level stake) on each selection. Even though this may work in the long haul, in the short-term it is important to watch out for long sequences of losers from the bigger priced football tips. Four or five losers in a row can quickly deplete your bank. Therefore it may be better to look for a different approach.
Another approach suggested by many is the Kelly Criterion. On the flip side, Kelly requires you to understand the probability of a win. The bet size is then determined by first converting the price on offer in to a probability. You then have to estimate the probability of your bet winning. The real difference between the sports book’s price probability and also your probability must be positive. If it is negative, you should drop this football tip like a ton of bricks and move on to the next match. The size of the bet is then calculated using this difference in probability. A bigger difference would suggest a bigger investment and also a small difference would suggest a small investment.
Now as you would ever guess, a typical person can’t estimate the probability of his football prediction winning. So this method is of little use to him. Yes, the mathematicians’ and professionals rave concerning this formula, and don’t get me wrong, it’s great in theory – but it fails in practice. If fails for at least for 90% of individuals who try to use it, and I am guessing that is you and me included.
Instead I want to use the regular price available. Sports Books have studied the matches complete and it is not often that they get the costs wrong. So why not use this to our advantage? This makes our foes greatest strength their weakness. Yes, I know that upsets happen, but if you look-at sports book prices over a long period, you will find that whenever they quote a result at even money, that result will occur close to 50% of the time.
So by using this as the true probability of the result we can accurately calculate just how much to invest on each football tip.
