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Smart sports betting, and football betting above all, is in line with the skills of the teams involved as opposed to random chance. This difference profoundly affects the appropriate betting strategies or systems. Understanding this difference is what makes an effective sports bettor.
Many of the betting systems and strategies available today are based upon general probabilities of a win or loss and are modified versions of systems developed for games of chance. Alternatively, sports betting – as well as poker – is just not according to random chance and probabilities, but on the skill of the contestants. This means that the underlying premise of sport betting is significantly different than betting on games of chance.
Although most gambling strategies designed for games of chance are mathematically unsound, in practice if one has roughly a 50% chance of winning, these systems can at least appear to offer a highly effective means of betting. In the long term, the failure of such systems is more or less inevitable since it is based upon the Gambler’s Fallacy. Gambler’s Fallacy is the mistaken impression that particular results are “due” based on previous outcomes in a series of independent trials of a random process. For example, the if one is tossing coins, and heads come up repeatedly, the gambler may conclude that this implies tails is “due” to come up next; whereas, as a matter of fact, the chances that the next coin toss will contribute to tails is precisely the same no matter the range of times heads has come up already.
In skill-based wagering, the bettor with the most understanding of the contestants involved has a definite advantage over the bettor that is hoping that the desired outcome “is due” according to probabilities. There isn’t any sound mathematical probability that any specific football team “is due” anything. Just think of Arsenal that won 14 consecutive games in 2002, or Derby County F.C. that lost 37 consecutive games in 2007-08. The major point for My Site these runs was the skill of the teams, not random chance.
That is not to state that random chance just isn’t involved, of-course it is. Any team may make mistakes or have accidents, leading to upsets and surprise outcomes. Even so the smart sports bettor knows that the level of skill of the team in question will be much more prone to influence the outcome than chance and luck. This really is what makes a successful sports bettor over time. Anybody can get lucky occasionally, but if one learns to make intelligent bets according to the skills of the teams involved, one is much more prone to win significant amounts of money over the long run.
