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As the bookies constantly improve their soccer prediction methods and attempt to avoid paying out, we can still find holes in their predictions. The question is how. There is absolutely no one million-dollar answer. Nonetheless, there are two ways that will enable you to beat the bookies. One of the ways is to analyze non-measurable match information. A different way is to improve on statistical prediction models used by bookmakers.
The first method requires you to analyze data for example match type or priority, which is not used in statistical models. Among the most prominent factors that might influence the outcome of a soccer match are:
Match type that may be an international/national league, a cup, or perhaps a friendly game. Especially profitable for Read More Here you are the cup finals, where the media selects favorites and also the better informed punter can profit from betting on the highly priced underdog teams.
Match priority. Each team must define its priority for the forthcoming matches, since team resources are restricted. European national cups are good examples for the top teams of low priority games.
Match time is essential, since soccer predictions are often inaccurate at the beginning and at the end of the season.
Players’ injuries, illnesses and transfers especially in the cases of key players. Bookmakers’ odds are often calculated before these facts will be available.
European Leagues – predictable and unpredictable. The Italian, Norwegian, French and Spanish leagues are thought about predictable. The unpredictable are the English and German leagues, especially at the beginning as well as the end of the season.
Additional factors are pitch conditions, team managers, match attendance, weather conditions and, simply, pure chance.
To analyze all that information for every match could be a complicated and time-consuming task. The alternative is to use advanced statistical prediction methods, which constitute an improvement on bookies’ prediction models.
Why can their models be further improved? First, when analyzing bookies’ predictions carefully, it really is easy to notice that their models are based upon average statistics. Low odds usually correspond to teams with good table positions and vice versa. It really is clear that the accuracy of their models suffers when team skills change. Thus, by taking into consideration team skill dynamics, you may improve your profit by placing a bet on highly priced underdogs.
Second, the bookmakers’ models don’t distinguish between the attacking and defensive strengths of soccer teams and do not remember the fact that soccer teams choose different strategies when playing at home or away. When you learn to distinguish between attacking and defensive strengths, you can simply forecast the total range of goals and beat the bookies at under/over bets.
Statistical models who were developed over the past few years explain historical match results with regard to changing skills and strategy. Bookmakers don’t use such advanced models. Properly designed and optimized time-dependent models can predict as much as 70% of matches, outperforming the bookies’ predictions whose accuracy will be much lower.
